Bayesian thinking, first principles thinking, and Occam’s razor. — 1. Bayesian Thinking “Violent Crime Doubles” If you read that headline in your local newspaper, you might assume you need to start watching your back. But is that true? Let’s say the risk of getting assaulted in your town last year was 1 in 10,000. Since violent crime has doubled, the risk of…

Second-level thinking, multiplying by zero, and margin of safety. — 1. Second-Level Thinking In the 1930s, the Australian government wanted to eliminate beetles that were destroying the country’s sugarcanes. So, they released thousands of cane toads into their plantations, hoping they would kill the beetles. But the toads were lousy at hunting beetles and excellent at reproducing. So today, there are millions, if…

Eliminate your distractions, love your work, and remember your duty. — 1. Eliminate Your Distractions “I don’t have enough time.” This is a very common and inaccurate statement. We all have plenty of time. It’s just a matter of how we spend it. The Stoic philosopher Seneca put it this way: We are not given a short life, but we make it short, and we…

Expect their presence, see their pain, and forgive their mistakes. — 1. Expect Their Presence If someone treats you poorly, it’s not their behavior that bothers you. It’s your expectations about their behavior that does. Imagine, for instance, that your boss gives you a snarky comment. If you feel agitated, it’s not because of how your boss treated you. It’s because you didn’t expect your…

Adjust your breath, practice cognitive defusion, and accept what is. — 1. Adjust Your Breath When you’re under stress, your breaths spontaneously become fast, short, and shallow. That breathing pattern strains your body and creates a downward spiral of more and more stress. So, it’s good practice to adjust your breath whenever you feel stressed. All you have to do is follow the three simple…

Ignore the uncontrollable, choose helpful interpretations, and love your fate. — 1. Ignore the Uncontrollable If you focus too much on things you can’t control, you’ll feel helpless, anxious, and stressed. So, get into the habit of separating what is outside and inside of your control, and then act accordingly: If it’s outside control — let it go. Tell yourself, “I don’t care,” until you’ve…

Use negative visualization, practice voluntary discomfort, and live with little. — 1. Use Negative Visualization This is a mental technique in which you deliberately envision the worst possible outcomes in your life. When you wake up, remind yourself that this might be your last day alive. When you leave your home, imagine what it would be like to lose it. When you see a friend…

Remove the triggers, replace the behavior, and create a commitment contract. — 1. Remove the Triggers We tend to assume that our personality drives our behavior. But in many cases, our environment drives our behavior even more(1). So, whenever you want to break a bad habit, removing its triggers from your surroundings is a good practice. Here are some examples: If you stay up too late…

Use temptation bundling, celebrate your wins, and track your progress. — 1. Use Temptation Bundling Whenever you want to make a habit more appealing, you can use this formula: I will only (tempting behavior) while I (desired behavior). Here are some examples: I will only listen to my favorite podcast while I work out. I will only drink my favorite coffee while I work on…